Industry news

  Under the influence of multiple factors, the "Golden Three" market in the domestic steel market failed to arrive as scheduled. However, since April, with low inventory and high cost support, steel prices have risen significantly, and the demand situation has improved. Most respondents believe that under the premise that the epidemic prevention and control situation improves in the later period, the steel market is expected to show a boom in supply and demand, and the logic of the recovery of infrastructure demand may help the steel market to welcome the spring.

  In Tangshan area, with the impact of the weakening of imported mines, most of the current dressing plants and traders are actively shipping. However, due to the epidemic control, the transportation of raw materials has been hindered. Steel companies mostly wait and see, and follow the principle of replenishing warehouses when they are low. The purchase has resulted in a general market transaction, and it is expected that the ore price will maintain a stable operation in the short term.

  In East China, Shandong Anhui Big Mine slightly raised its expectations over the weekend. In addition, due to the epidemic control, the circulation of local subway powder was limited, and steel companies mostly took a wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing just in need. At present, Luzhong 64 dry base is 1131 yuan excluding tax, Anhui 62 pellets are 1500 yuan, and Shandong pellets are about 1600 yuan.

  In Hebei, environmental inspections of Chengde mines have led to production reductions in some areas. In addition, transportation restrictions and shipments have been blocked, and market transactions have been in general. Currently, the dry base of Kuancheng 65 vanadium and titanium resources is stable at 1180 including tax. The price is too high and the search is cautious. Due to the epidemic control in the Hanxing area, local resources are tight, and the circulation is not smooth, some steel companies suspend the purchase of internal powder, consume inventory or use external mines. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the duration of the local epidemic.

Raw materials:

  This week, the scrap steel market was mainly strong, with some falling within a narrow range. During the holiday, market resources are in short supply, and some steel companies raise prices to receive goods; after the holiday, the prices of finished products have risen sharply, and the merchants have a strong mentality to wait for an increase. Under the influence of the epidemic, transportation across the country is limited, and the arrival of steel companies has a certain impact, and the downstream construction sites cannot be constructed normally. In terms of seasonal demand, April is a traditional peak season, and it is a stage for steel companies to reduce the inventory of finished products However, although the epidemic has not yet ended, finished products in some areas are still accumulating in warehouses, so the profits of steel companies have been compressed again and again, and electric furnaces have entered a stage of loss. Some are maintained through production reduction and single-shift production. On the whole, before the epidemic is completely alleviated, it is difficult for the supply of scrap steel to return to normal levels. Steel companies will not be able to make profits if they do not increase the arrival of goods. Under the premise of weak supply and demand, the continued increase may be limited. The demand is adjusted within a narrow range, and it is expected that the high level will be the main consolidation in the later period.

Futures market:

  Driven by a number of fossil fuel varieties, the thread 2210 contract has undergone adjustments in the past two days. With the expansion of the opening tension of the indicator and the process of testing the MACD zero axis, the K line is gradually pressing to the 60 line, which may produce twin support. According to the structure, the price has a rebound opportunity around it. According to the idea of stepping back to 60, the rebound has no high point, and the price breaks the 60 line, there is a high probability of a one-hour period of decline in the following market. In the short term, focus on the support range of 5068-5040 Nearby, the pressure level temporarily looks at the vicinity of 5144. The overall structure is bearish on rallies, and during the rebound process, when the indicator deviates and expands, cautiously chase more.

Inventory data:

  In 35 cities, 9,693,500 tons of thread warehouses increased by 32,400 tons, 2,322,800 tons of wire rod warehouses increased by 10,700 tons, and the total social warehouse inventory was 12,016,300 tons. An increase of 18,400 tons, the total inventory of steel mills was 4,312,400 tons; the weekly output of rebar was 3,097,600 tons, an increase of 63,900 tons, and the apparent demand was 2,961,600 tons, a decrease of 146,100 tons from last week. This week, the inventory turned from a decrease to an increase, and the apparent demand weakened slightly, and the inventory was not digested smoothly.

Under the influence of the epidemic, demand and transportation in some regions are basically stagnant, and with the recent price increase, traders who took goods in the early stage mainly made profits, and they were cautious, and their operations were mainly profitable and shipped. In terms of raw materials, the arrival of scrap steel is not good, and the electric furnace has entered a loss-making stage. Partly by reducing production, the profits of steel companies have been repeatedly compressed. From the point of view of the spot market, demand is still weak, and the operating rate of the downstream market is insufficient, which still affects the further increase in prices. However, everyone needs to pay attention to the fact that the main driving force for the price increase in the early stage is not strong demand, but cost support and low inventory. Under the premise that the raw material cost support remains, the probability of a sharp price reduction is not high, and the short-term high consolidation is the mainstay.